OSCARS 2008 - OUR PREDICTIONS...

Best Picture: There Will Be Blood, No Country For Old Men, Juno, Atonement, Michael Clayton
The big one and, fittingly, the most difficult to call. I think we can rule out Michael Clayton, which was a surprise nomination ahead of The Diving Bell and the Butterfly in the first place, and Juno, which has proven popular enough to earn a nod but is still too niche to have a shot at winning the prize. Despite its unfortunate BAFTA win, the ho-hum Atonement is also an outsider, lacking the momentum (and quality) to take it over the finishing line. So, it comes down to the two westerns: There Will Be Blood and No Country For Old Men. Personally, I think Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is the superior one, but it’s just too damn out there for the conservative Academy members who are likely to be more turned on by the ‘the world ain’t what it used to be’ message of No Country.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: Blood just pipping No Country
WHAT WILL WIN: No Country just pipping Blood

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, Joel & Ethan Coen, Jason Reitman, Julian Schnabel, Tony Gilroy
At the risk of repeating myself, we‘re likely to get a bit of Best Picture déjà vu in the Best Director category. Tony Gilroy and Jason Reitman are very much outsiders for Michael Clayton and Juno respectively, while Atonement’s Joe Wright is absent altogether. Taking his place is Diving Bell and the Butterfly’s Julian Schnabel, who’s a decent outside bet if you’re looking for a dark horse, but certainly not a favourite. Instead, it’s Anderson and the Coens who will battle it out. Again. And again I want Anderson to win, because you’re unlikely to see a more unique film this year than There Will Be Blood. Thankfully, he’s got more chance of winning here than in Best Picture, but it’s still likely to go to the Coens, as much for their illustrious career as No Country.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson
WHO WILL WIN: Joel and Ethan Coen

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, George Clooney, Johnny Depp, Tommy Lee Jones, Viggo Mortensen
The most open and shut category at this year’s awards. Daniel Day-Lewis is all set to run away with the prize and more than deserves to. Some have called it pantomimic, but the theatricality of Day-Lewis’s performance in There Will Be Blood is core to the character of Daniel Plainview and blending that with a turn of very real menace makes Mr Method a much-deserved shoo-in for the second Best Actor gong of his career.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
WHO WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress: Ellen Page, Julie Christie, Laura Linney, Marion Cotillard, Cate Blanchett
This is another category with a clear favourite, though one not quite as cut and dried as Best Actor. Despite being an awards favourite, the only one we can pretty much rule out is Cate Blanchett, whose turn in Elizabeth: The Golden Age hasn’t got enough momentum to bag the prize. The Savages is a bit too indie for the Academy so Laura Linney can probably be ruled out as well. Therefore it comes down to three. Marion Cotillard is in the running after her surprise win at the BAFTAs, but they are rarely precise indicators for the Oscars so the two main contenders are Ellen Page for Juno and Julie Christie for Away From Her. Newcomer vs. Veteran? With the Oscars, the veteran always wins, and in this case it’s just about right.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Julie Christie
WHO WILL WIN: Julie Christie

Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, Javier Bardem, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Hal Holbrook, Tom Wilkinson
After his Best Actor win for Capote in 2006, Philip Seymour Hoffman is an outsider for his turn in Charlie Wilson‘s War, especially as the film has little awards momentum. Tom Wilkinson is also doubtful for Michael Clayton, as is Hal Holbrook who was a surprise nomination for his turn in Sean Penn’s Into The Wild. Javier Bardem is clearly the favourite, and it would be a big surprise if he were to miss out. But don’t discount Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Long title, but it’s been heavily praised and Oscar always throws up at least one major shock. This could well be it. Having said that though…

WHO SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem
WHO WILL WIN: Javier Bardem

Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, Ruby Dee, Saoirse Ronan, Amy Ryan, Tilda Swinton
The most difficult category to call, probably because I’ve not seen most of the performances up for the prize. Out of the five, I’ve only seen Saoirse Ronan, who was superb for a girl so young in Atonement. Still, I'll have a dig at predictions. Ruby Dee and Amy Ryan seem outsiders, having not really picked up any momentum in the awards season so far, and Ronan is probably too young to be claiming the gong. So I’m going to say it’s between two people: Blanchett and Swinton. Blanchett is an old pro at the Oscars, but despite the difficulty of her performance (playing Bob Dylan), I reckon Swinton could claim the prize, especially after her success at the BAFTAs two weeks ago.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Dunno. Saoirse Ronan? Yeah, why not.
WHO WILL WIN: Tilda Swinton

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Atonement, Away From Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood.

Because of their dominance of the main prizes, No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood will be considered favourites here. However, I don’t think TWBB will take the prize because Anderson's script bears little in common with Upton Sinclair's source novel, and No Country could miss out because the Academy may be wary of a whitewash. So I'm going to tip The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. It's been too heavily praised to be ignored completely and the screenplay categories are where the indie, niche films usually get recognition.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: No Country For Old Men
WHAT WILL WIN: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Juno, Lars and the Real Girl, Michael Clayton, Ratatouille, The Savages.
One of the easiest catergories to predict. Original Screenplay is traditionally the category where the year’s ‘little film that could’ triumphs. Lost In Translation and Little Miss Sunshine have done it in the past, and Juno will do it this year.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: Juno
WHAT WILL WIN: Juno